TransX Risk Predictor
Reefer Shutdown Probability Model
TransX Reefer Analytics
Fleet-wide analytics platform for reefer shutdown risk prediction, cost modeling, maintenance optimization, and repair pattern analysis.
Since last refresh
Quick Stats
Unit Selection
Trip Details
Maintenance History
Auto-filled from unit dataSelect a unit and trip details,
then click Calculate
Frozen Model — Training Context
The model is trained once (2025 trip history) and frozen; monthly refreshes update each unit’s inputs, never these numbers. They change only at a retrain.
Risk Tiers
Trip Risk Calculator
Estimate shutdown risk for any trip without a unit's history — pick a reefer model, set its condition, and enter the trip. Use it for new equipment, planning, or what-if scenarios.
Equipment
Trip Details
Ambient weather en route is taken from the season. Override the coldest leg under Advanced for a specific winter route.
Leave blank to use the condition preset. Override to model a specific unit's wear (what-if).
Pick a model and condition,
enter the trip, then Calculate
How this works
No unit history is required. The condition preset fills the unit's accumulated maintenance/alarm profile (New = clean, Typical = fleet median, Worn = heavy), and the trip inputs drive the rest. The same frozen model and calibration as the live fleet scores are used, so tiers are directly comparable.
Risk Tiers
Filters
What-If Scenario changeable metrics
Change operational levers and see how the frozen model re-scores the fleet, live. Equipment facts (model year, make) are not levers. Export the affected ranking as CSV or Excel.
Affected fleet ranking (by adjusted risk)
| # | Unit | Baseline | Tier | Adjusted | Tier | Δ |
|---|
Risk Tier Distribution
fleet baseline belowGroup By
Repair & Maintenance Pattern (current slice vs fleet baseline)
per-unit averages| Metric | Slice Avg | Fleet Avg | Δ vs Fleet | Distribution |
|---|
PM Delay vs Risk & Shutdown Rate (current slice)
| PM Status | Units | Avg Risk % | Shutdown Rate % |
|---|
Fleet Risk Ranking
click column header to sort| # | Unit | Container | Model · Yr | Make | Risk % | Tier | Trips | SDs · Rate | SDs 90d | Last SD | Last Repair | Cum. PM Overdue | Total Repair $ | CPH $/hr | CPM $/mi | Fuel L/hr |
|---|
New units — not yet scored
New-build reefers seen in uploaded data but newer than the frozen model’s training fleet. Treated as provisional: low risk (freshly serviced) until they are folded in at the next retrain. They are excluded from the ranking and fleet averages above.
| Unit | Model | Year | Status | First seen | Profile |
|---|
Make × Model × Year × Season
Risk is re-scored for each unit under each of the 4 seasons (other features held constant). Highlights which cohorts are most weather-sensitive.
Fleet Seasonal Baseline (avg risk if every unit ran in that season)
Cohort × Season Heatmap
| Make | Model | Year | Units | Winter | Spring | Summer | Fall | Swing max−min |
|---|
Most Weather-Sensitive Cohorts (largest gap between worst and best season)
| Cohort | Units | Worst Season | Worst Risk | Best Season | Best Risk | Swing |
|---|
Reefer Model Deep-Dive
Per-model history: shutdown rates, age cohorts, component patterns, and action items. Uses observed historical trip data.
Worst Performing Cohorts
Model + year combinations ranked by shutdown rate — identifies specific vintages to target
| Model | Year | Age | Units | SD Rate % | Avg Risk % | Cost/Trip | Elevated+ | Top Component Issue |
|---|
Component Vulnerability by Model
Avg repairs per unit — darker = more repairs. Identifies which components fail on which models.
Risk by Model × Year
Full breakdown showing age effect per model
| Model | Year | Age | Units | SD Rate % | Avg Risk % | Cost/Trip |
|---|
Actionable Recommendations by Model
Component Group Failure Rates
Trips with this component group repaired in the pre-trip window — sorted by failure rate. Lift = how many times riskier vs baseline.
| Component Group | Trips | Shutdowns | Failure Rate | Lift | Risk Bar |
|---|
Repair-to-Trip Turnaround
How soon after the last repair the unit was dispatched — shorter gaps = higher risk
Diagnosis Resolution
Was the diagnosis followed by an actual component fix before the trip?
Failure Rate by Repair Reason
Was the pre-trip shop visit a PM, general repair, warranty, etc.?
| Reason | Trips | Failure Rate | Lift |
|---|
Description Keywords
Keywords in repair descriptions (14d window) and their associated failure rates
| Keyword | Trips | Failure Rate | Lift |
|---|
Dangerous Repair Combinations
Two component groups repaired within 14 days before a trip — combinations with highest failure rates
| Component A | Component B | Trips | Shutdowns | Failure Rate | Lift | Risk Bar |
|---|
Repair Sequences (Order Matters)
Last two work orders before a trip, in chronological order. The sequence reveals whether issues escalated or went unresolved.
| First Repair | Second Repair | Trips | Shutdowns | Failure Rate | Lift |
|---|
Repeat Repair Impact
Same component group repaired 2+ times in 30 days before a trip vs single occurrence — repeat = unresolved issue
| Component Group | Pattern | Trips | Shutdowns | Failure Rate | Lift |
|---|
Detailed Comp Code Breakdown
Individual repair codes with 5+ occurrences in the pre-trip window
| Code | Group | Trips | Shutdowns | Failure Rate | Lift |
|---|
Cost Per Hour (CPH)
Three models for every reefer: PM $/hr (scheduled maintenance), Repair $/hr (GENREP), and the money-pit flag (sell / keep). Start in Triage.
Fleet triage — what to act on this week
One queue combining all three models: scheduled-maintenance $/hr, repair $/hr, and the money-pit flag. Sorted by predicted annual maintenance $.
Triage queue
Scheduled maintenance — PM CPH model
Predicts PM cost per engine-hour by COMPCODE, then sums to a per-reefer PM $/hr. Use for budget planning (more stable than repairs).
Top reefers by predicted PM annual $
| Unit | Make | Model | Shop | PM $/hr | PM $/yr |
|---|
Fleet PM $ by COMPCODE
This is the schedule forecast — annual $ per service code across the filtered slice
| Code | Service | Reefers | Avg $/hr | Total $/yr |
|---|
Drill into one reefer’s PM schedule
| Code | Service | PM $/hr | PM $/yr |
|---|
Repairs — GENREP CPH model
Predicts general-repair cost per engine-hour. Harder than PM (surprise failures) — treat as a budget range, and lean on the money-pit flag for replace-vs-repair decisions.
Top 20% repair watchlist
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| Unit | Make | Model | Age | Money pit | Reactive PMs | Repair $/hr | Repair $/yr |
|---|
Repair $/hr distribution
Avg repair $/hr by age band
Money-pit classifier
Flags chronic high-maintenance reefers (~98% accuracy). Use for sell vs keep and before approving $2,500+ repairs. Not a dollar predictor.
How a unit becomes a money pit
Reactive PM is usually the dominant trigger (~97% of flags in training).
Sell vs keep
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| Unit | Make | Model | Age | MY | Reactive PMs | Repair $/hr | Repair $/yr | Decision |
|---|
All money-pit flags in this slice
| Unit | Make | Model | Age | Shop | Reactive PMs | Maint visits | Double-bill ratio | Repair $/hr | Maint $/yr |
|---|
Unit detail — all three models on one card
Select Reefer
Drivers / health signals
PM schedule by COMPCODE
Each PM track predicted independently, costs summed
Scenario Planner (New Reefer)
Predict PM and GENREP cost/hr for a hypothetical new reefer. Assumes perfect maintenance behavior (0 neglect, 0 delays, healthy telematics).
Asset Details
Maintenance Plan
Expected Usage
Cost Per Mile (CPM)
Lifetime maintenance-cost diagnostic · 857 ThermoKing intermodal containers · GENREP + PM split. Use it to rank units and understand what drives cost — not to forecast next-quarter dollars.
Select Unit
SHAP Cost Drivers
Per-unit SHAP values in CPM units. Positive = increases cost, negative = reduces cost.
What-If Scenario Exploration
Adjust feature inputs to explore how lifetime CPM would shift under different conditions. Exploratory scenario tool — not a forecast of actual next-period cost.
Field definitions
CPM Ranking (Lowest to Highest)
Fleet-wide CPM ranking with HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW bands (P20/P80 thresholds)
| # | Unit | Pred CPM | Pred Cost | Total Miles | Rail Miles | Hwy Miles | Band |
|---|
Global SHAP importance shows average CPM contribution magnitude by feature across the fleet. Higher mean |SHAP| = stronger average influence on CPM prediction.
GENREP Driver Pattern
PM Driver Pattern
Feature Glossary
| Feature | Description |
|---|
1 · Choose a file
Drop a monthly export (.xlsx / .csv). The file is parsed in your browser, matched against the agreed template, and checked against the database before anything is saved.
2 · Review & confirm
Nothing is written until you confirm. Duplicates are skipped automatically, so re-sending overlapping months is safe.
Data coverage by source
| Source | From | Through | Rows |
|---|
Upload history
| When | Type | File | By | Rows | Inserted | Duplicates | Rejected | Period |
|---|
Risk score runs
Every fleet scoring run, including backdated month-ends. Download any month as CSV or Excel.
| Data as of | Label | Units | Tier mix | Ran | Download |
|---|
Compare two runs
| Unit | Score (baseline) | Score (compare) | Δ | Tier change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pick two runs to see the biggest movers | ||||
| Pick a dataset and press Apply |
Risk Movers
Reefers whose risk tier changed between the two most recent monthly score runs — an earlier signal than any single snapshot.
| Unit | Previous tier | Current tier | Δ Tier | Prev risk | Curr risk | Δ Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Repair vs Retire
Every reefer placed on a risk × cost grid. High-risk units that are also cost outliers are retirement candidates — fixing them rarely pays back.
| Unit | Model | Tier | Risk % | Maint $/hr | CPM $/mi | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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